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近期重要財經資訊 |
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台經院估 2024 經濟成長率 3.15％「這時候」迎全面復甦 【經濟日報 / 2023-11-08】
台灣經濟研究院今 ( 8 ) 日公布最新經濟預測，預估 2024 年經濟成長率達 3.15%，較原先預測的 1.43%，增加 1.72 個百分點。台經院院長張建一表示，影響明年景氣復甦的最大不確定因素是「通膨」，無論是戰爭衝突或淨零碳排，最後都會產生通膨，通膨則會影響需求和消費者的支出價格，必須密切關注。 |
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台北市房價再噴！8 月標準住宅單價、住宅指數雙創高 【工商時報 / 2023-11-23】
台北市政府地政局今 ( 23 ) 日公布最新一期的「 2023 年 11 月動態月報」，指出 2023 年 8 月份實價登錄結果，每坪標準住宅價格平均達 58.95 萬元，住宅指數 116.85，雙雙再創史上新高紀錄。 |
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通膨甩不掉！主計總處上修今明年 CPI 年增率、外食費難降 【經濟日報 / 2023-11-28】
行政院主計總處今 ( 28 ) 日舉行經濟預測記者會，上修今年消費者物價指數 ( CPI ) 年增率至 2.46%，較今年 8 月上修 0.32 個百分點，顯示物價情勢將是連續二年超過通膨警戒線。同時，主計總處今也上調 2024 年 CPI 預測上漲至 1.64%，較 8 月上修 0.06 個百分點。 |
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復甦力道不足 10 月製造業景氣燈號續亮黃藍燈 【聯合報 / 2023-11-30】
台經院今天發布 10 月製造業景氣燈號，儘管全球終端需求仍低迷，製造業復甦力度不足，但因低基數漸低，且外銷訂單年減幅度縮小，AI 帶動需求面表現，加上廠商對未來半年景氣表現看好度增加，10 月製造業景氣信號值 11.59 分，較 9 月增加 0.76 分，連續亮出第四個代表景氣低迷的黃藍燈。 |
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Fed 褐皮書：未來 6 至 12 個月經濟展望趨弱 【工商時報 / 2023-11-30】
美國聯準會 ( Fed ) 29 日公布俗稱《褐皮書》的地區經濟調查報告，顯示 10 月初至 11 月 中美國經濟活動放緩。企業回報通膨壓力大幅紓緩且聘雇難度減輕，但消費者支出謹慎下，未來半年到一年的經濟展望趨弱。 |
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打炒房 平均地權條例上路及囤房稅 2.0 修法 【中時新聞網 / 2023-11-30】
房價居高不下，引發民怨，今年政府連下兩道猛藥，透過《平均地權條例》及《囤房稅 2.0 》修法，直接讓房市交易急凍、房價止漲。被稱為史上最重的打炒房政策《平均地權條例》修正案今年 1 月三讀、7 月 1 日上路，內容包括禁預售轉售、私法人購屋許可制、檢舉制度、解約申報及重罰炒作。 |
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近期地上權招標案 |
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嘉義新亮點！高鐵站前 1.6 萬坪地上權案招商啟動 【經濟日報 / 2023-11-06】
嘉義高鐵站地上權招商案正式公告，截標日期為 113 年 2 月 29 日，並預計於 112 年 11 月 14 日下午於交通部鐵道局舉辦招商說明會，向潛在投資人說明與意見交流。 |
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台南十大區段徵收區開發 標售、標租與設定地上權加速土地處 【自由時報 / 2023-11-09】
南市府目前已辦竣之區段徵收案，包含近期已完成的永康區新設鹽行國中暨附近地區區段徵收案、中國城暨運河星鑽地區區段徵收案、南台南站副都心第一期區段徵收案、安平水景公園區段徵收案等共計 10 案。土地處分包括以標售、標租、設定地上權之處分方式，除償還開發成本外，亦提供專案讓售給鐵路地下化照顧住宅，及無償提供南科附近新市安居社會住宅用地，盈餘挹注市政建設，並提供優質居住環境，以促進地區發展。 |
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台糖釋出福興溫泉區地上權旅館用地招商 吸引南投業者關注 【工商時報 / 2023-11-15】
「台灣土地公」台糖公司為活化土地，15 日下午舉辦「埔里福興溫泉區暨台中糖廠商業區土地開發招商說明會」，預計釋出福興溫泉區 6.7 公頃旅館區及商店區土地，以及台中市東區兩筆合計逾 8,000 坪的大面積商用地，明年將以設定地上權方式公開招商，今日吸引來自清境、埔里等南投地區多家旅館業者到場關心。 |
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近期景氣對策信號 Business Cycle Indicators - Light Signal & Total Scores |
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- 2023 年 10 月景氣對策信號綜合判斷分數為 16 分，較上月減少 1 分，燈號轉為藍燈。主要因素為出口由 9 月的正成長，10 月轉為負成長；但考量後續 11 月及 12 月出口應轉為正成長，預期 11 月景氣燈號將再轉為黃藍燈。
The comprehensive judgment score for the economic policy signal in October 2023 is 16 points, a decrease of 1 point compared to the previous month, resulting in a change to a blue signal. The main factor is the shift in exports from positive growth in September to negative growth in October. However, considering the expected return to positive export growth in November and December, it is anticipated that the economic signal in November will turn to a yellow-blue signal.
- 10 月出口因基期偏高影響，燈號轉為藍燈，但生產、銷售減幅持續收斂；股價指數則因低基期效應轉為紅燈；另就業人數、零售及餐飲業營業額持續成長，顯示勞動與內需市場仍屬穩定。
In October, the export signal turned to a blue light due to the impact of a high base period. However, the contraction in production and sales continued to narrow. The stock price index, on the other hand, turned to a red light due to the low base period effect. Additionally, employment figures, retail, and restaurant industry turnover continued to grow, indicating that the labor market and domestic demand remain stable.
- 展望未來，智慧化科技應用持續擴展，以及歐美進入年底採購旺季提升備貨需求，有助帶動外貿表現；投資方面，隨庫存水準漸趨正常，製造業遞延投資可望逐步落實，加上政府引導產業朝低碳化及智慧化轉型，協助產業創新升級，皆可望激勵投資；消費方面，就業情勢維持穩定，加上政府持續優化所得稅制，推動各項減輕負擔措施，以及明年基本工資調升，可望挹注民眾可支配所得，維繫消費動能。整體而言，國內經濟可望逐漸好轉，惟國際通膨及升息效應持續、地緣政治風險因素仍在，須密切關注。
Looking ahead, the domestic economy is poised for gradual improvement. Factors such as the expanding application of smart technology, increased stocking demand in the year-end procurement season in Europe and the United States, and government initiatives promoting low-carbon and smart transformations in industries are expected to drive positive trends.
In terms of investments, as inventory levels normalize, deferred investments in the manufacturing sector are anticipated to be implemented gradually. Government measures, including income tax system optimization and next year's expected increase in the basic wage, are likely to stimulate consumer spending by boosting disposable income. However, it is crucial to monitor ongoing international inflation, interest rate effects, and geopolitical risks.
資料來源：國家發展委員會，統計至 2023 年 10 月。
Source: National Development Commission, data updated until Oct 2023.
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五大銀行新承做購屋貸款金額與利率 Taiwan’s Top Five Bank’s Average Mortgage Rate and Amount |
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- 中央銀行公佈 2023 年 10 月五大銀行新承做放款平均利率。
The Central Bank announced the average interest rates for new loans undertaken by the five major banks in Oct 2023.
- 本 ( 2023 ) 年 10 月本國五大銀行(台銀、合庫銀、土銀、華銀及一銀)新承做放款加權平均利率為 2.051％，較 9 月的 1.990％上升 0.061 個百分點，主要係因週轉金貸款利率較 9 月上升所致。若不含國庫借款，則本年 10 月五大銀行新承做放款加權平均利率為 2.064％，亦較 9 月的 2.016％上升 0.048 個百分點。
In October 2023, the weighted average interest rate for new loans undertaken by the five major banks in the country ( Bank of Taiwan, Land Bank, Taiwan Cooperative Bank, Hua Nan Bank, and First Bank ) was 2.051%, an increase of 0.061 percentage points compared to September's 1.990%. This rise is primarily attributed to an increase in the interest rates of working capital loans compared to September. Excluding national treasury borrowings, the weighted average interest rate for new loans undertaken by the five major banks in October of this year was 2.064%, a 0.048 percentage point increase from September's 2.016%.
資料來源：中華民國中央銀行全球資訊網，統計至 2023 年 10 月。
Source: Central Bank of the Republic of China ( Taiwan ) official website, data updated until Oct 2023.
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建物移轉登記量分析（所有權第一次）Analysis of Property Transfer Registration ( First-time Ownership ) |
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年份
Year |
縣市
Citiy |
買賣移轉棟數
First - Time Property Transfer Registration |
年變動
Yearly Variation |
變動率
Variation Rate |
2023 年 10 月
2023. Oct |
六都
Six major cities |
8,971 |
年減↘
Decrease ↘ |
32.71% |
2023 年 10 月
2023. Oct |
台北市
Taipei |
698 |
年增↗
Increased ↗ |
32.20% |
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建物移轉登記量分析（買賣）Analysis of Property Transfer Registration ( Buy - Sell Transactions ) |
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建照、使照量分析 The Number of Building Permits and Usage Permits |
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- 2023 年 10 月建照戶數較上月減少、使照核發戶數變化較上月減少。
In October 2023, the number of issued construction permits decreased compared to the previous month, resulting in a reduction in the total number of permitted households.
- 整體建照、使照及供給戶數整體有逐漸減少之勢，近期市場較為冷卻，須持續注意市場變化。
The overall number of construction permits, permitted households, and available households is showing a gradual decrease. The market has recently experienced a cooling trend, and ongoing attention is needed to monitor changes in the market.
資料來源：台北市建管處，因資料發布之時間差，統計至 2023 年 10 月。
Source: Taipei City Building Management Office, data updated until Oct 2023.
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台北市住宅交易量分析 Analysis of Residential Property Transaction Volume in Taipei City |
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- 2023 年 9 月 - 2023 年 10 月交易熱門區域為中山區、大安區、內湖區，交易量為北市最熱絡
From September to October 2023, the popular real estate transaction areas were Zhongshan District, Da'an District and Neihu District.
- 全區市場較為平穩，外部影響因素增多，使台北住宅交易市場放緩。
The overall housing market in the entire region remains relatively stable. However, an increase in external influencing factors has led to a slowdown in the residential property market in Taipei.
資料來源：台北市地政局，因資料發布之時間差，統計至 2023 年 10 月。
Source: Taipei City Land Administration Agency. Data is updated until Oct 2023.
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台北市住宅交易總價帶與類型分析 Analysis of Residential Property Transaction Price Ranges and Types in Taipei City |
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- 2023 年 9 月 - 2023 年 10 月台北市住宅交易雖主要集中在總價 2,000 萬元以內， 比例為 56.85%，略為減少。
In Sep to Oct 2023, over 56.85% of residential property transactions in Taipei City were priced at NTD 20 million or below, slightly lower than before.
- 1,001 - 2,000 萬住宅交易其次，比例持平平穩。
Residential property transactions in the price range of NTD 10.01-20 million were the second most common, with a stable and consistent proportion.
- 4,000 萬以上住宅交易占全市交易 31.11%，高總價交易也呈平穩上揚。
Residential property transactions with prices above NTD 40 million accounted for 31.11% of the total transactions in the city. This indicates a steady increase in high-value transactions.
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- 2023 年 9 月 - 2023 年 10 月住宅交易產品類型主要集中大樓產品，占比約 66.91%，比例平穩。
From September to October 2023, the primary focus in residential property transactions was on high-rise buildings, accounting for approximately 66.91% of the market share. The proportion remained stable during this period.
- 2023 年 9 月 - 2023 年 10 月住宅交易仍以屋齡 31 年以上為最大宗，占比略增加至 57.62%
。
From September to October 2023, residential property transactions continued to be dominated by properties with an age of 31 years and above, representing the majority at approximately 57.62%. This proportion slightly increased during this period.
資料來源：台北市地政局，因資料發布之時間差，統計時間為 2023 年 10 月。
Data Source: Taipei City Land Administration, Statistics as of Oct 2023.
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台北市捷運線整體平均行情 Property Overview by Taipei Metro Route |
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- 近期台北市捷運線週邊住宅平均交易單價區間擴大，且交易有量縮情形，升息影響，市場觀望氛圍浮現，交易也分散，但明顯成交單價持續略微降低，件數略減。
Recently, Taipei's MRT-adjacent residential property market has seen a widening price range, reduced transaction volume, and increased market caution, likely due to rising interest rates. Average transaction prices have slightly and consistently declined, along with a slight decrease in transaction numbers.
- 近期捷運線周邊住宅交易坪數小坪數仍為主力。
Small-sized residential units continue to dominate transactions around the metro lines.
資料來源：台北市地政局，因資料發布之時間差，統計時間為 2023 年 9 月 - 2023 年 10 月，統計資料為捷運站 300 公尺內之實價登錄交易資料。
Source: Taipei City Land Administration Agency. The statistics cover the period from Sep 2023 to Oct 2023 and are based on the transaction data recorded within a 300-meter radius of MRT stations.
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