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近期重要財經資訊 |
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Fed 褐皮書：企業指經濟活動放緩 勞動市場續疲軟 【鉅亨網 / 2024-7-18】
根據周三 (17 日) 公布的聯準會褐皮書，美國經濟活動從 5 月下旬到 7 月上旬以緩慢至適度的速度擴張，企業預期未來增長將放緩，同時也報告了勞動市場持續疲軟的跡象，這與聯準會 ( Fed ) 最近更加關注勞動需求放緩以確保不會太遲降息的立場一致。 |
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連 23 季漲！Q1 全國住宅價格指數 140.82 續創新高 【工商時報 / 2024-7-19】
內政部發布 2024 年第 1 季全國住宅價格指數為 140.82，指數續創新高，連續 23 季上漲，季增 3.4％，年增 9.29％，整體市況呈「量價俱增」且增幅明顯擴大。內政部表示，Q1 因國內外景氣復甦，國內持續投資建設，經濟成長率年增 6.56％，股市持續高檔上漲；加上市場資金充裕，房貸利率仍處於相對低檔，帶動自住置產購屋需求。 |
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主計總處下修今年經濟成長率至 3.9% 預估 2025 年更差 【UDN / 2024-8-16】
主計總處今日發布 2024、2025 年最新經濟預測，小幅下修 2024 年第 2 季經濟成長率 5.06%，全年經濟成長率下修為 3.90%；2024 年消費者物價指數 ( CPI ) 年增率為 2.17%，較 5 月預測值 2.07% 上修 0.1 個百分點，顯示今年通膨情勢較預期險峻。2025 年全年經濟成長率 3.26%，比今年差，但 CPI 年增率 1.91%，可望掉到通膨警戒值以下。 |
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復甦不均 製造業景氣燈號連 4 綠 【聯合報 / 2024-8-31】
台經院昨日發布 7 月製造業景氣，由於各產業復甦力道不同調，景氣燈號續亮代表持平的綠燈，連四綠，7 月製造業景氣信號值為 13.46 分，較 6 月修正後的 13.97 分減少 0.51 分。展望下半年，台經院認為，第四季將進入傳統旺季，預計會有一波拉貨潮，但需留意美國總統大選結果以及人工智慧 ( AI ) 需求是否能夠續航。 |
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房屋稅新制起跑 注意全國總歸戶應這樣算 以享有優惠稅率 【自由時報 / 2024-9-3】
屏東縣政府財稅局表示，近日確實接獲不少民眾詢問，應該怎麼計算個人全國總持有住家用房屋戶數，依「房屋稅條例第五條與第十五條第一項第九款規定住家用房屋戶數認定及申報擇定辦法」第 3 條第 1 項規定，計算全國總持有住家用房屋戶數，以下列各款之人為準，按其持有之住家用房屋合併歸戶計算。 |
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主計總處公布 8 月 CPI 略降至 2.36% 仍連 4 月破警戒線 【中廣新聞網 / 2024-9-5】
主計總處今天 ( 5 日) 公布 8 月消費者物價指數 ( CPI ) 年增率 2.36%，連續 4 個月超出 2% 的通膨警戒線。由於颱風後蔬菜持續復耕，如果天候持續好轉，蔬果價格漲幅趨緩，主計總處認為 9 月 CPI 應有機會持續縮減。 |
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近期地上權招標案 |
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地上權標售麗寶大贏家 拿下高雄、新北、桃園三筆地 【經濟日報 / 2024-8-13】
國產署今年第四批國有地上權昨 ( 12 ) 日開標，十宗土地共標出六宗，標脫率 60%，決標權利金總金額 20.7 億元，其中，麗寶集團積極獵地，共搶下三宗土地，合計出資逾 15 億元，再成地上權大贏家。 |
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台南二大精華區地上權招商案啟動 運河星鑽與南台南副都心前景佳 【自由時報 / 2024-9-2】
台南市府啟動「臺南市中西區星鑽段 2425、2426 地號設定地上權案」及「臺南市南台南副都心車站專用區土地設定地上權案」招商說明會，吸引建築開發業、壽險業、零售業及旅館業等業者出席，招商場面互動熱絡，預計於 113 年 9 月 24 日開標，若二案皆順利招商成功，有利舊城區與東區副都心再現新活力。 |
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1.6 億標得嘉市國有地地上權 建商預計 2 年內動工 【中時新聞 / 2024-9-4】
嘉義市房地產大爆發，繼嘉義市政府與國城建設合作推都更開發案後，又有大集團旗下開發公司標到垂楊路崇文國小對面的國有地地上權，這塊地是蛋黃中的蛋黃，依國產署標約規定，最遲 2026 年初要動工。 |
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近期景氣對策信號 Business Cycle Indicators - Light Signal & Total Scores |
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- 2024 年 7 月景氣對策信號綜合判斷分數為 35 分，較上月減少 3 分，燈號轉為黃紅燈。其中，資通產品需求續強，惟傳產復甦尚緩，加上凱米颱風影響部分生產及出貨遞延，致出口轉呈綠燈，工業生產指數轉為黃紅燈。另領先及同時指標持續上升，顯示國內景氣維持成長態勢。
In July 2024, the comprehensive judgment score of the economic policy signal was 35 points, a decrease of 3 points compared to the previous month, with the signal turning to a yellow-red light. The demand for ICT products remained strong; however, the recovery in traditional industries was still slow. Additionally, Typhoon Khanun affected some production and caused shipment delays, resulting in exports shifting to a green light, and the industrial production index turning to a yellow-red light. Furthermore, the leading and coincident indicators continued to rise, indicating that the domestic economy is maintaining its growth momentum.
- 展望未來，隨全球貿易緩步成長，加以 AI、高速運算等應用持續熱絡，以及消費性電子產品進入年底鋪貨旺季，將挹注出口動能；投資方面，國內半導體廠商積極擴增先進製程及高階封測產能，國際大廠陸續宣布來臺設置研發或資料中心，加上企業因應數位與淨零轉型持續投入相關設備，可望激勵投資動能；消費方面，國內就業市場維持穩定，景氣回溫有助帶動企業調薪，加以政府持續推動減輕人民負擔措施，均有助消費動能延續。惟主要國家大選及利率政策動向、主要經濟體貿易保護措施、國際地緣政治情勢變化等不確定因素猶存，仍須密切留意對我國經濟之影響。
Looking ahead, global trade growth, strong demand for AI and high-performance computing, and the year-end surge in consumer electronics shipments are expected to boost exports. Domestic semiconductor manufacturers are expanding capacity, and international firms are setting up R&D and data centers in Taiwan, driving investment. A stable job market, wage increases, and government initiatives will support consumer spending. However, uncertainties like major elections, interest rate policies, trade protection measures, and geopolitical shifts must be monitored for their potential impact on Taiwan's economy.
資料來源：國家發展委員會，統計至 2024 年 7 月。
Source：National Development Commission, data updated until July 2024.
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五大銀行新承做購屋貸款金額與利率 Taiwan’s Top Five Bank’s Average Mortgage Rate and Amount |
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- 本 ( 2024 ) 年 7 月本國五大銀行 （台銀、合庫銀、土銀、華銀及一銀） 新承做放款加權平均利率為 2.115％，較 6 月的 2.127％ 下降 0.012 個百分點，主要係因週轉金貸款利率下降所致。若不含國庫借款，則本年 7 月五大銀行新承做放款加權平均利率為 2.119％，亦較 6 月的 2.127％ 下降 0.008 個百分點。
In July 2024, the weighted average interest rate on new loans issued by the five major banks ( Bank of Taiwan, Land Bank of Taiwan, Taiwan Cooperative Bank, First Commercial Bank, and Hua Nan Bank ) was 2.155%, a decrease of 0.012 percentage points from June's 2.127%. This drop was mainly due to a decline in working capital loan rates. Excluding Treasury loans, the weighted average interest rate in July was 2.119%, down 0.008 percentage points from June's 2.127%.
資料來源：中華民國中央銀行全球資訊網，統計至 2024 年 7 月。
Source：Central Bank of the Republic of China ( Taiwan ) official website, data updated until July 2024.
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建物移轉登記量分析（所有權第一次）Analysis of Property Transfer Registration ( First-time Ownership ) |
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年份
Year |
縣市
Citiy |
買賣移轉棟數
First - Time Property Transfer Registration |
年變動
Yearly Variation |
變動率
Variation Rate |
2024 年 7 月
2024. July |
六都
Six Major Cities |
9,425 |
年增↗
Increased ↗ |
60.59% |
2024 年 7 月
2024. July |
台北市
Taipei |
961 |
年增↗
Increased ↗ |
69.49% |
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建物移轉登記量分析（買賣）Analysis of Property Transfer Registration ( Buy - Sell Transactions ) |
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建照、使照量分析 The Number of Building Permits and Usage Permits |
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- 2024 年 7 月建照戶數較上月增加、使照核發戶數變化較上月減少。
In July 2024, the number of issued construction permits decreased compared to the previous month, resulting in a reduction in the total number of permitted households.
- 整體建照、使照及供給戶數整體有逐漸減少之勢，綜觀整體房市熱絡，持續關注市場變化。
Overall, there is a trend of gradual decline in the number of building permits, occupancy permits, and supply of housing units. Given the overall active real estate market, it is important to continue monitoring market changes.
資料來源：台北市建管處，因資料發布之時間差，統計至 2024 年 7 月。
Source：Taipei City Building Management Office, data updated until July 2024.
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台北市住宅交易量分析 Analysis of Residential Property Transaction Volume in Taipei City |
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- 2024 年 6 月 - 2024 年 7 月交易熱門區域為中山區、大安區、北投區。
From June to July 2024, the most popular areas for real estate transactions were Zhongshan District, Daan District, and Beitou District.
- 中山區、北投區及大安區交易量為北市最熱絡，全區市場較為平穩，外部影響因素增多，使台北住宅交易市場放緩。
Transactions in Zhongshan District, Beitou, and Da'an saw the most active in Taipei City, with the overall market showing relative stability. Despite this, the overall market remained relatively stable. However, increasing external factors have contributed to a slowdown in the residential property market in Taipei.
資料來源：台北市地政局，因資料發布之時間差，統計至 2024 年 7 月。
Source：Taipei City Land Administration Agency. Data is updated until July 2024.
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台北市住宅交易總價帶與類型分析 Analysis of Residential Property Transaction Price Ranges and Types in Taipei City |
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- 2024 年 6 月 - 2024 年 7 月台北市住宅交易雖主要集中在總價 2,000 萬元以內， 比例為 52.96，較上季略為減少。
From June to July 2024, residential transactions in Taipei City were primarily concentrated on properties priced below NT$20 million, accounting for 52.96% of total transactions. This represents a slight decrease compared to the previous quarter.
- 1,001 - 2,000 萬住宅交易其次，比例持平平穩。
Residential transactions in the NT$10.01 to 20 million range followed, with the proportion remaining stable.
- 4,000 萬以上住宅交易占全市交易 32.50%，高總價交易也呈平穩。
Residential transactions priced above NT$40 million accounted for 32.50% of all transactions in Taipei City, with high-priced property transactions also showing stability.
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- 2024 年 6 月 - 2024 年 7 月住宅交易產品類型主要集中大樓產品，占比約 68.07%，比例上升
。
From June to July 2024, residential transactions were predominantly focused on high-rise buildings, accounting for approximately 68.07% of the total. This proportion has increased.
- 2024 年 6 月 - 2024 年 7 月住宅交易仍以屋齡 31 年以上為最大宗，占比略增加至 57.67%。
From June to July 2024, residential property transactions continued to be dominated by properties with an age of 31 years and above, representing the majority at approximately 57.67%. The proportion slightly increased during this period.
資料來源：台北市地政局，因資料發布之時間差，統計時間為 2024 年 7 月。
Data Source：Taipei City Land Administration, Statistics as of July 2024.
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台北市捷運線整體平均行情 Property Overview by Taipei Metro Route |
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- 近期台北市捷運線週邊住宅平均交易單價區間擴大，交易也分散，但明顯成交單價持續略微升高。
Recently, the average transaction prices for residential properties around Taipei's MRT lines have seen an expanded range, indicating a more dispersed market. However, there has been a noticeable slight increase in transaction prices overall.
- 近期捷運線周邊住宅交易坪數小坪數仍為主力。
Small-sized residential units continue to dominate transactions around the metro lines.
資料來源：台北市地政局，因資料發布之時間差，統計時間為 2024 年 6 月 - 2024 年 7 月，統計資料為捷運站 300 公尺內之實價登錄交易資料。
Source：Taipei City Land Administration Agency. The statistics cover the period from June 2024 to July 2024 and are based on the transaction data recorded within a 300-meter radius of MRT stations.
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