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近期重要財經資訊 |
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Fed 褐皮書盤點美國經濟 12 月股市將回到基本面情境 AI 類股接棒成長
【鉅亨網 / 2024-10-24】
根據周三 ( 17 日 ) 公布的聯準會褐皮書，美國經濟活動從 5 月下旬到 7 月上旬以緩慢至適度的速度擴張，企業預期未來增長將放緩，同時也報告了勞動市場持續疲軟的跡象，這與聯準會 ( Fed ) 最近更加關注勞動需求放緩以確保不會太遲降息的立場一致。 |
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Q2 內政部全國房價指數季增 4.02％ 12 年來單季次高 【自由時報 / 2024-10-24】
內政部發布最新第二季全國住宅價格指數，季漲幅高達 4.02%，不但是 2012 年第 3 季、12 年來單季漲幅第二高，僅次於 2013 年第 2 季的 4.7%，更是自 2018 年第 3 季以來、連續 24 季長達 6 年維持上漲趨勢。 |
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房屋稅 2.0 南投 5 萬戶可減稅、2.3 萬戶稅率最高翻 4 倍 【聯合報 / 2024-11-27】
房屋稅 2.0 新制今年 1 月 3 日上路，南投縣稅務局提出「南投縣房屋稅徵收率自治條例」修正草案送縣議會審查，11 月 25 日三讀通過，修正條文自今年 7 月 1 日施行，將反映在明年 5 月開徵的房屋稅。 |
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台經院：台製造業景氣信號值落至近八月低點 續亮低迷黃藍燈 【聯合報 / 2024-11-29】
台灣經濟研究院 29 日發布 10 月製造業景氣燈號，因油品、塑化及汽車等傳產出口疲弱，使出口衍生的進口需求縮小，加上伺服器逢新舊轉換期及高基期，致整體生產指數增幅縮小至個位數，再加上製造業廠商憂心美國總統大選結果引發景氣不確定性升溫，整體製造業景氣信號值落至 11.20 分，探近八個月低點，燈號續為代表景氣低迷的黃藍燈。 |
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主計總處上修今年 GDP 成長至 4.27% 四小龍之冠 【自由時報 / 2024-11-30】
主計總處昨預測今年經濟成長率 4.27％、上修 0.37 個百分點，為近三年新高，居亞洲四小龍之冠，並高於全球平均，主因出口表現及民間投資優於預期；預估明年經濟成長 3.29％、上修 0.03 個百分點。副主計長蔡鴻坤表示，「國內經濟狀況不錯，但有些不太均衡」。 |
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11 月出口佳 有望連 13 紅 【經濟日報 / 2024-12-8】
雖然地緣政治衝突持續、美中科技角力等不確定因素，但主要國家逐步放寬貨幣政策、人工智慧等應用持續推展，及年終消費旺季來臨，財政部將於 9 日公布 11 月進出口統計，估 11 月出口可能來到 393 億至 408 億美元，年增 5％ 至 9％，有望連 13 個月正成長。 |
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近期地上權招標案 |
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國產署再推 8 宗地上權招標 權利金底價 27.8 億 【自由時報 / 2024-9-12】
財政部近日公告第 5 批國有地招標設定地上權標的，訂於 10 月 28 日開標，本次共釋出 8 宗土地，有 7 宗落在六都，1 宗在宜蘭，權利金底價共約新台幣 27.8 億元。 |
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北市財政局首宗地上權都更案 「北投晶泉丰旅」溫泉酒店正式營運 【住展雜誌 / 2024-9-19】
北投溫泉歷史悠久且遠近馳名，是許多民眾冬天泡湯首選，當地溫泉旅館從平價到高檔都有，現在又多了新選擇。由台北市政府推動地上權都更、富邦人壽興建的北投溫泉旅館「北投晶泉丰旅」，昨（18）日正式投入營運，由五星飯店龍頭晶華集團負責經營，為泉源路沿線量體最大的溫泉度假酒店，並提供 24 小時免費的戶外足湯及北投居民享 9 折優惠，為大台北地區溫泉觀光注入活水。 |
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地上權標案僅兩筆標脫 麗寶集團拿下台中土地 【經濟日報 / 2024-10-29】
地上權標案大吹冷風，財政部國有財產署昨（28）日開標今年第五批國有地上權，八宗僅二宗標脫，標脫率僅 25％，溢價率分別只 1.2%、0.1%，合計標脫金額僅 6.1 億元。兩宗土地得標人都是麗寶集團，包含福容開發、麗盛建設都標下台中土地。 |
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近期景氣對策信號 Business Cycle Indicators - Light Signal & Total Scores |
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- 2024 年 10 月景氣對策信號綜合判斷分數為 32 分，較上月減少 2 分，燈號續呈黃紅燈。其中，受鋼鐵、化學材料市場需求平疲、產線排休、颱風干擾等影響，工業生產指數轉為黃紅燈，製造業銷售量指數轉呈綠燈。另領先指標經回溯修正後轉為連續 3 個月下滑，同時指標則大致持平，顯示國內景氣維持成長，惟須密切關注後續變化。
In October 2024, the composite score of the economic monitoring indicators was 32 points, a decrease of 2 points compared to the previous month, with the signal remaining at a yellow-red light. Factors such as weak demand in the steel and chemical materials markets, production line adjustments, and typhoon disruptions led the industrial production index to shift to a yellow-red light, while the manufacturing sales index turned to a green light. Additionally, after retrospective adjustments, the leading indicators showed a three-month consecutive decline, while the coincident indicators remained largely stable, suggesting that the domestic economy continues to grow, though close attention must be paid to future developments.
- 展望未來，IMF 等國際機構普遍預測明 ( 2025 ) 年全球貿易量成長率將較今年提升，顯示終端需求維持復甦趨勢，加上 AI、高效能運算等新興科技應用持續推展，出口成長態勢可望延續；投資方面，受惠國內半導體業者持續擴充先進製程、科技供應鏈回流，加上國際大廠陸續來臺設置研發或資料中心，以及企業加速導入低碳化、智慧化相關設備，均有助激勵投資動能；消費方面，隨國內就業市場穩定，企業獲利轉佳，帶動調薪及獎金發放意願，加以政府持續推動減輕人民負擔措施，提高可支配所得，將維繫民間消費動能。但全球經濟仍存在美國新任總統之經貿政策、地緣政治衝突等不確定因素，對國內景氣影響仍須密切留意。
Looking ahead, global trade growth in 2025 is expected to outpace this year, driven by recovering demand and advancements in AI and high-performance computing, supporting export growth. Investment momentum will benefit from domestic semiconductor expansion, reshoring of the tech supply chain, international firms establishing R&D centers in Taiwan, and accelerated adoption of low-carbon, smart technologies. Stable employment, improved corporate profits, and government measures to ease financial burdens will sustain private consumption. However, uncertainties such as U.S. trade policies and geopolitical tensions require close monitoring for potential impacts on the domestic economy.
資料來源：國家發展委員會，統計至 2024 年 10 月。
Source：National Development Commission, data updated until Oct 2024.
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五大銀行新承做購屋貸款金額與利率 Taiwan’s Top Five Bank’s Average Mortgage Rate and Amount |
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- 2024 年 10 月本國五大銀行 ( 台銀、合庫銀、土銀、華銀及一銀 ) 新承做放款加權平均利率為 2.129％，較 9 月的 2.146％ 下降 0.017 個百分點，係因週轉金及資本支出貸款利率較 9 月下降所致。另 10 月五大銀行未承做國庫借款，致五大銀行不含國庫借款之新承做放款加權平均利率同為 2.129％，亦較 9 月的 2.156％ 下降 0.027 個百分點。
In October 2024, the weighted average interest rate on new loans granted by the five major domestic banks ( Bank of Taiwan, Taiwan Cooperative Bank, Land Bank of Taiwan, Hua Nan Bank, and First Commercial Bank ) was 2.129%, a decrease of 0.017 percentage points from 2.146% in September. This decline was due to lower interest rates on working capital and capital expenditure loans compared to September. Additionally, as the five major banks did not undertake government treasury borrowing in October, the weighted average interest rate on new loans excluding government treasury borrowing remained at 2.129%, which was 0.027 percentage points lower than the 2.156% in September.
資料來源：中華民國中央銀行全球資訊網，統計至 2024 年 10 月。
Source：Central Bank of the Republic of China ( Taiwan ) official website, data updated until Oct 2024.
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建物移轉登記量分析（所有權第一次）Analysis of Property Transfer Registration ( First-time Ownership ) |
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年份
Year |
縣市
Citiy |
買賣移轉棟數
First - Time Property Transfer Registration |
年變動
Yearly Variation |
變動率
Variation Rate |
2024 年 10 月
2024. Oct |
六都
Six Major Cities |
11,989 |
年增↗
Increased ↗ |
33.64% |
2024 年 10 月
2024. Oct |
台北市
Taipei |
828 |
年增↗
Increased ↗ |
18.62% |
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建物移轉登記量分析（買賣）Analysis of Property Transfer Registration ( Buy - Sell Transactions ) |
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建照、使照量分析 The Number of Building Permits and Usage Permits |
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- 2024 年 10 月建照戶數較上月增加、使照核發戶數變化較上月減少。
In October 2024, the number of issued construction permits decreased compared to the previous month, resulting in a reduction in the total number of permitted households.
- 整體建照、使照及供給戶數整體有逐漸減少之勢，綜觀整體房市熱絡，持續關注市場變化。
Overall, there is a trend of gradual decline in the number of building permits, occupancy permits, and supply of housing units. Given the overall active real estate market, it is important to continue monitoring market changes.
資料來源：台北市建管處，因資料發布之時間差，統計至 2024 年 10 月。
Source：Taipei City Building Management Office, data updated until Oct 2024.
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台北市住宅交易量分析 Analysis of Residential Property Transaction Volume in Taipei City |
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- 2024 年 9 月 - 2024 年 10 月交易熱門區域為中山區、大安區、士林區。
From September to October 2024, the most active trading areas were Zhongshan District, Daan District, and Shilin District.
- 中山區、北投區及大安區交易量為北市最熱絡，全區市場較為平穩，外部影響因素增多，使台北住宅交易市場放緩。
Zhongshan District, Beitou District, and Daan District recorded the highest transaction volumes in Taipei, reflecting the city's most active areas. While the overall market remains relatively stable, increasing external factors have led to a slowdown in Taipei's residential transaction market.
資料來源：台北市地政局，因資料發布之時間差，統計至 2024 年 10 月。
Source：Taipei City Land Administration Agency. Data is updated until Oct 2024.
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台北市住宅交易總價帶與類型分析 Analysis of Residential Property Transaction Price Ranges and Types in Taipei City |
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- 2024 年 9 月 - 2024 年 10 月台北市住宅交易雖主要集中在總價 2,000 萬元以內， 比例為 54.60，較上季略為增加。
From September to October 2024, residential transactions in Taipei City were primarily concentrated in properties priced below NT$20 million, accounting for 54.60% of the total transactions, which is a slight increase compared to the previous quarter.
- 1,001 - 2,000 萬住宅交易其次，比例持平平穩。
Residential transactions in the NT$10 million to NT$20 million range ranked second, with the proportion remaining stable.
- 4,000 萬以上住宅交易占全市交易 30.24%，高總價交易也呈平穩。
Residential transactions above NT$40 million accounted for 30.24% of the total transactions in the city, with high-priced transactions remaining stable.
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- 2024 年 9 月 - 2024 年 10 月住宅交易產品類型主要集中大樓產品，占比約 64.74%，比例上升
。
From September to October 2024, residential transactions were predominantly focused on high-rise buildings, accounting for approximately 64.74% of the total. This proportion has increased.
- 2024 年 9 月 - 2024 年 10 月住宅交易仍以屋齡 31 年以上為最大宗，占比略增加至 62.18%。
From June to July 2024, residential property transactions continued to be dominated by properties with an age of 31 years and above, representing the majority at approximately 62.18%. The proportion slightly increased during this period.
資料來源：台北市地政局，因資料發布之時間差，統計時間為 2024 年 10 月。
Data Source：Taipei City Land Administration, Statistics as of Oct 2024.
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台北市捷運線整體平均行情 Property Overview by Taipei Metro Route |
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- 近期台北市捷運線週邊住宅平均交易單價區間擴大，交易也分散，但明顯成交單價持續略微升高。
Recently, the average transaction prices for residential properties around Taipei's MRT lines have seen an expanded range, indicating a more dispersed market. However, there has been a noticeable slight increase in transaction prices overall.
- 近期捷運線周邊住宅交易坪數小坪數仍為主力。
Small-sized residential units continue to dominate transactions around the metro lines.
資料來源：台北市地政局，因資料發布之時間差，統計時間為 2024 年 9 月 - 2024 年 10 月，統計資料為捷運站 300 公尺內之實價登錄交易資料。
Source：Taipei City Land Administration Agency. The statistics cover the period from Sep 2024 to Oct 2024 and are based on the transaction data recorded within a 300-meter radius of MRT stations.
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