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近期重要財經資訊 |
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Fed 褐皮書展望 美 2025 經濟樂觀 關稅戰成隱憂
【工商時報 / 2024-12-6】
美國聯準會 ( Fed ) 4 日公布俗稱「褐皮書」的地區經濟報告指出，雖然仍有聘僱受到抑制和通膨問題，但美國 11 月經濟還算穩定擴張，企業對 2025 年的展望樂觀，惟川普回鍋白宮後的關稅政策成為隱憂。 |
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台灣房價漲幅全球第 4 央行打擊炒房現成效 【民眾日報 / 2024-12-18】
台灣的房價持續上漲，據國際知名房地產顧問萊坊公布的 2024 年第二季「全球房價指數」，台灣的房價年漲幅達 11.9%，在全球排行第 4 名。不過，央行近來重擊打擊炒房現象，抑制新屋市場的買房意欲，全國預售屋交易量由 7 月約 1.27 萬件跌至 8 月僅 5,744 件。 |
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第 7 波打炒房效果如何？央行 11 月最新數據出爐 【聯合報 / 2024-12-26】
央行今年 9 月 20 日祭出第 7 波選擇性信用管制，並在 10 月 9 日做出修正，寬限期限制排除繼承取得房屋及房貸，打炒房效果如何？本國銀行新承作受限不動產貸款情形最新統計出爐，其中自然人部分，無寬限期的名下有房屋者第 1 戶購屋貸款撥款金額為 45.55 億元；第 2 戶購屋貸款撥款金額 8.8 億元。 |
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主計總處上修去年 GDP 至 4.3% 創近 3 年新高 【公視新聞網 / 2025-1-1】
行政院主計總處公布去 ( 2024 ) 年第 4 季經濟成長率達 1.84%，2024 年全年 GDP 年增率衝破 4 字頭，來到 4.3%，創近 3 年新高；至於 2025 年經濟成長率，台經院經濟學者認為國內出口、投資、消費均衡復甦，今 ( 2025 ) 年 GDP 仍是正成長，可望保 3。 |
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製造業景氣 連三月亮黃藍燈 【工商時報 / 2025-1-1】
台灣經濟研究院 2024 年 12 月 31 日發布 11 月份台經院製造業景氣調查，整體製造業景氣信號值月增 0.91 分至12.29 分，燈號連續三個月維持在黃藍燈，顯示景氣正在轉折，11 月愈加靠向轉好的綠燈。 |
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出口表現亮眼！全年「四季紅」去年 Q4 值最強單季 【工商時報 / 2025-1-10】
2024 年出口表現「四季紅」。財政部 9 日公布最新海關進出口統計，2024 年 12 月出口神龍擺尾，以出乎預期的 435.9 億美元創歷年單月次佳水準，也帶動去年第四季出口值 1,259.7 億美元寫下單季史上最佳紀錄，全年出口規模 4,750.7 億美元為歷年第二高。 |
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近期地上權招標案 |
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財部今年推 3 批地上權 雙北住宅區等 11 宗標的物打頭陣 【中央社 / 2025-1-15】
財政部今天表示，今年國有地招標設定地上權將推出 3 批次，第 1 批擬於 3 月 24 日公告，預計會有 11 宗土地，包含首次列標的台北市大安區、中山區，與新北林口住宅區土地，以及屏東 6,200 多坪商業區土地；目前權利金底價仍待定。 |
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北市地上權招商 底價逾 6.6 億 【聯合報 / 2025-1-16】
台北市財政局昨公布「信義區逸仙段」一處國有地地上權案招商案，設定年期 70 年，地點近國父紀念館、大巨蛋，台北 101，土地面積約 300 坪，可蓋 11 至 15 樓，權利金底價 6 億 6,110 萬元，2 月 11 日將辦招商說明會，3 月 31 日投標截止。 |
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國產署招標地上權兩大變革 長照、地租繳納限制鬆綁 【自由時報 / 2025-1-22】
國產署積極以招標設定地上權方式活化國有土地，並持續精進相關措施，為促進異業結合、鼓勵民間興辦意願，也放寬興辦公共福利或慈善救助事業使用適用權利金成數底價的投標人資格，只要符合地上權招標資格，且興辦公共福利或慈善救助事業，都適用較低的權利金成數與底價。 |
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近期景氣對策信號 Business Cycle Indicators - Light Signal & Total Scores |
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- 2025 年 1 月景氣對策信號綜合判斷分數為 34 分，較上月減少 4 分，燈號轉呈黃紅燈。其中，出口受惠 AI 應用商機熱絡而轉為紅燈，惟銷售面、M1B 燈號分數減少，主因春節因素干擾，以及部份產業上月已提前備貨。另領先指標經回溯修正後轉為上升，同時指標亦續呈上升，顯示當前國內景氣維持溫和成長，仍須密切關注後續變化。
The composite score of the business cycle indicators for January 2025 was 34 points, a decrease of 4 points from the previous month, shifting the signal to a yellow-red light. Exports turned to a red light, benefiting from strong AI-driven business opportunities. However, the scores for sales and the M1B indicator declined, mainly due to disruptions from the Lunar New Year and early inventory stocking by some industries in the previous month. Additionally, after retrospective adjustments, the leading indicator turned upward, and the coincident indicator continued to rise, suggesting that the domestic economy is maintaining moderate growth. Nonetheless, close attention should be paid to future developments.
- 展望未來，國際主要機構預測今年全球貿易量可望續增，加上全球科技大廠增加資本支出，以及人工智慧、高效能運算等終端應用持續發展，可望挹注我國出口動能；投資方面，隨半導體廠商積極擴充先進製程及高階封測產能、國際大廠陸續來臺設立研發或資料中心，以及企業朝向淨零與數位雙轉型投資，均有助增添投資動能；消費方面，隨國內就業市場穩定、企業獲利成長、最低工資及軍公教待遇調整，將有助提高企業員工調薪及獎金發放意願，加上政府持續優化所得稅制及推出各項減輕人民負擔措施，可望提高國人消費能力。惟國際貿易政策之變化、地緣政治衝突等不確定因素仍存，後續須密切留意對國內經濟之影響。
Looking ahead, major international institutions predict that global trade volume will continue to grow this year. Additionally, increased capital expenditures by leading global technology companies, along with the ongoing development of AI, high-performance computing, and other advanced applications, are expected to bolster Taiwan’s export momentum.
On the investment front, the expansion of advanced semiconductor manufacturing and high-end packaging and testing capacities, the establishment of R&D and data centers in Taiwan by international tech giants, and corporate investments in net-zero and digital transformation will all contribute to sustaining investment momentum.
Regarding consumption, a stable domestic job market, corporate profit growth, adjustments to minimum wages and public sector salaries, as well as stronger willingness among companies to raise wages and distribute bonuses, will enhance household spending power. Additionally, the government’s ongoing efforts to optimize the tax system and introduce measures to reduce the financial burden on citizens are expected to further support domestic consumption.
However, uncertainties such as shifts in global trade policies and geopolitical conflicts remain. Close attention must be paid to their potential impact on Taiwan’s economy.
資料來源：國家發展委員會，統計至 2025 年 1 月。
Source：National Development Commission, data updated until Jan 2025.
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五大銀行新承做購屋貸款金額與利率 Taiwan’s Top Five Bank’s Average Mortgage Rate and Amount |
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- 2025 年 1 月本國五大銀行 ( 台銀、合庫銀、土銀、華銀及一銀 ) 新承做放款加權平均利率為 2.119％，較上 2014 年 12 月的2.141％ 下降 0.022 個百分點，主要係因週轉金貸款利率較上年 12 月下降所致。若不含國庫借款，本年 1 月五大銀行新承做放款加權平均利率為 2.138％，亦較上年 12 月的 2.141％ 下降 0.003 個百分點。
In January 2025, the weighted average interest rate on new loans issued by Taiwan's five major banks (Bank of Taiwan, Land Bank of Taiwan, Taiwan Cooperative Bank, Hua Nan Bank, and First Bank) was 2.119%, a decrease of 0.022 percentage points from 2.141% in December 2024. This decline was primarily due to a lower interest rate on working capital loans compared to the previous December.
Excluding treasury loans, the weighted average interest rate on new loans for January 2025 was 2.138%, down by 0.003 percentage points from 2.141% in December 2024.
資料來源：中華民國中央銀行全球資訊網，統計至 2025 年 1 月。
Source：Central Bank of the Republic of China ( Taiwan ) official website, data updated until Jan 2025.
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建物移轉登記量分析（所有權第一次）Analysis of Property Transfer Registration ( First-time Ownership ) |
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年份
Year |
縣市
Citiy |
買賣移轉棟數
First - Time Property Transfer Registration |
年變動
Yearly Variation |
變動率
Variation Rate |
2025 年 1 月
2025. Jan |
六都
Six Major Cities |
9,170 |
年增↗
Increased ↗ |
3.46% |
2025 年 1 月
2025. Jan |
台北市
Taipei |
494 |
年減↘
Decrease ↘ |
-24.46% |
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建物移轉登記量分析（買賣）Analysis of Property Transfer Registration ( Buy - Sell Transactions ) |
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建照、使照量分析 The Number of Building Permits and Usage Permits |
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- 2025 年 1 月建照戶數較上月增加、使照核發戶數變化較上月減少。
In January 2025, the number of issued construction permits decreased compared to the previous month, resulting in a reduction in the total number of permitted households.
- 整體建照、使照及供給戶數整體有逐漸減少之勢，綜觀整體房市較為觀望氛圍，因受政策影響，須持續關注市場變化
Overall, there is a gradual decline in the number of building permits, usage permits, and housing supply. The housing market remains in a wait-and-see mode, influenced by policy factors, making it essential to continuously monitor market developments.
資料來源：台北市建管處，因資料發布之時間差，統計至 2025 年 1 月。
Source：Taipei City Building Management Office, data updated until Jan 2025.
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台北市住宅交易量分析 Analysis of Residential Property Transaction Volume in Taipei City |
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- 2024 年 12 月 - 2025 年 1 月交易熱門區域為中山區、士林區、大安區。
From December 2024 to January 2025, the most active real estate transaction areas were Zhongshan District, Shilin District, and Daan District.
- 中山區、士林及大安區交易量為北市最熱絡，全區市場較為平穩，外部影響因素增多，使台北住宅交易市場放緩。
Zhongshan District, Shilin District, and Daan District recorded the highest transaction volumes in Taipei, making them the most active areas in the city. While the overall market remained stable, increasing external factors contributed to a slowdown in Taipei's residential real estate transactions.
資料來源：台北市地政局，因資料發布之時間差，統計至 2025 年 1 月。
Source：Taipei City Land Administration Agency. Data is updated until Jan 2025.
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台北市住宅交易總價帶與類型分析 Analysis of Residential Property Transaction Price Ranges and Types in Taipei City |
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- 2024 年 12 月 - 2025 年 1 月台北市住宅交易雖主要集中在總價 2,000 萬元以內， 比例為 65.71%，較上季略為增加。
From December 2024 to January 2025, residential transactions in Taipei were primarily concentrated in properties priced at NT$20 million or below, accounting for 65.71% of total transactions, a slight increase from the previous quarter.
- 1,001 - 2,000 萬住宅交易其次，比例持平平穩。
Residential transactions in the NT$10 million to NT$20 million range ranked second, with the proportion remaining stable.
- 4,000 萬以上住宅交易占全市交易 23.19%，高總價交易略減穩。
Residential transactions priced above NT$40 million accounted for 23.19% of total transactions in Taipei, with high-value property transactions slightly declining but remaining stable.
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- 2024 年 12 月 - 2025 年 1 月住宅交易產品類型主要集中公寓產品，占比約 50.14%，比例下降
。
From December 2024 to January 2025, the majority of residential transactions were for properties aged 6 to 30 years, accounting for 51.93% of total transactions, with a slight increase in this proportion.
- 2024 年 12 月 - 2025 年 1 月住宅交易以屋齡 6~30 年以下為最大宗，占比略增加至 51.93%。
From December 2024 to January 2025, the largest proportion of residential transactions were for properties aged 6 to 30 years, with the share slightly increasing to 51.93%.
資料來源：台北市地政局，因資料發布之時間差，統計時間為 2025 年 1 月。
Data Source：Taipei City Land Administration, Statistics as of Jan 2025.
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台北市捷運線整體平均行情 Property Overview by Taipei Metro Route |
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- 近期台北市捷運線週邊住宅平均交易單價區間擴大，交易也分散，但明顯成交單價持續略微升高。
Recently, the average transaction prices for residential properties around Taipei's MRT lines have seen an expanded range, indicating a more dispersed market. However, there has been a noticeable slight increase in transaction prices overall.
- 近期捷運線周邊住宅交易坪數小坪數仍為主力。
Small-sized residential units continue to dominate transactions around the metro lines.
資料來源：台北市地政局，因資料發布之時間差，統計時間為 2024 年 12 月 - 2025 年 1 月，統計資料為捷運站 300 公尺內之實價登錄交易資料。
Source：Taipei City Land Administration Agency. The statistics cover the period from Dec 2024 to Jan 2025 and are based on the transaction data recorded within a 300-meter radius of MRT stations.
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